Why merchants often need forward covers for exchange rate fluctuation?

Exchange Rate


A forward contract to buy or sell foreign currency can be compared to an insurance policy against possible losses arising from exchange rate fluctuation between the date of the contract and date of delivery of the contracted amount of the said currency. For example, an exporter in USA forward contracts to sell a firm in London certain amount of electronic goods at a price of USD10000.00. Before agreeing to this price, the exporter calculates his cost of raw material and other overhead expenditure and adds a reasonable margin for profit satisfies that the proceeds of USD10000.00 would cover this amount. He bases his calculation on the exchange rate prevailing as on the date of his quotation. For example, if the exchange rate on the date is USD2.40 per sterling pound, he expects to receive 2.4 X 10000.00 on the execution of the contract. The exchange rate is not stable even under the best of circumstances. By the time the exporter execute his contract and receives the payment, say after a lapse of 3 months, the exchange rate might turn against him. This uncertainty about the rate that would prevail on a future date is know as the exchange risk. For the exporter, the exchange risk is that the foreign currency in which the transaction is designated may depreciate in future and may bring less than the expected amount of money in term of local currency .
The importer too faces exchange risk when the transaction is designated in a foreign currency. The risk is that the foreign currency may appreciate in value and he may be compelled to pay in local currency an amount higher that that was originally contemplated generally make arrangements for loan for payment for the imports. If the foreign currency appreciates subsequent to the arrangement of the loan, the importer may find that the resources are not sufficient to meet the import bill putting him in a difficult situation.

Forex Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

Forex market is vigorously changing market. If anyone like to entering forex trade then analysis is a tools for deciding about trade. As analysis is a continuous process, anyone need to do the same even after entering a trade.
In Forex trading you need both fundamental analysis and technical analysis for success.Technical Analysis can be considered as the colors on the canvas of Fundamental Analysis. Demand and supply of particular currency, health of economy or region are the basics of price movement in the forex market. But when currency pair traded for speculative investment many other reasons or factors are concern. Those factors in fact are driving the direction of the price movement in forex market.
Price movement in forex market for day trading or short term forex trading depends on psychological aspects, sentiment, technical analysis etc. Forex market mood is important for traders and it is possible any body with the help of technical indicators for technical analysis. Traders may learn about thinking and behaving of other trading floors with the help of technical analysis. It also help us to understand how the market is turning. Trading decision is the key of all success in forex market. Many traders use technical analysis indicators for their daily trading round the world.
There are many time frame charts in technical indicators. These charts are given completely deferent pictures for deferent time frame. Such as an hourly forex chart is given deferent pictures from weekly charts. Sometime if an hourly chart indicate to buy but daily chart may indicate to sell. Successful trading decision needs to combine technical indicators as well as fundamental analysis with current economic issue.

Currency Swap Example

Currency swap and Interest rate swap



Forward transaction are either outright or currency swap  An outright involves forward purchase or sale of a currency at a forward rate  which express the actual price of one currency against another for delivery on specified value date. Forward rate are quoted as outright because it is easily understood by the customers and officials working in the forex departments. However, as transactions pick up and exchange rates become more responsive to the changes in the international markets, it will be convenient to use margin in forward quotations. Besides, it is the margin which is more relevant in the swap market.

A currency swap, which is common in developed market involves purchase or sale of a currency spot with a reverse deal in the forward market or simultaneous purchase and sale of forward currencies with different maturities. The difference between the two is called swap margin or swap rate. The swap transactions are normally done by banks to cover their own exchange risks.
In short we can say under a swap deal the bank buys and sells specified foreign currency simultaneously for different maturities. Thus swap deal may involve:

1. Simultaneous purchase of spot and sale of forward or vice versa.
2. Simultaneous purchase and sale , both forward but for different maturities. For instance, the bank may buy one month forward and sells two months forward. Such a deal is known as ‘forward to forward swap’.
A swap deal is done in the market at a difference from the ordinary deals. In the ordinary deal the following factors enter into the rates:
1. The difference between the buying and selling rates.
2. The forward margin, i.e. the premium or discount.

In the currency swap deal the first is ignored and both buying and selling are done at the same rate. Only the foreword margin enters into the deal as swap difference. In other words the swap rate is the difference between the rate of exchange used in the two trades. A bank may for instance, sell US$1 million against Yen 60.30 million spot value coupled with the purchase of US$ 1.00 million for delivery in 3 months time against Yen 60.50 million. Here the dollar is sold forward at the rate of US$1.00 = Yen 60.30 and forward purchase is at Yen 60.50 the swap rate is 0.20 or 2000 points.

Forward Contract

Booking of Forward Contract


The stages involved of booking and utilization of a forward contract may be summarized as follows.
The transaction of booking of forward contract is initiated with the customer inquiring of his bank the rate at which the required forward currency is available. In fact forward contract is a financial derivative. Before quoting a rate the bank should get details about
1. the currency
2. the period of forward cover, including the particulars of option and
3. the nature and tenor of the instrument.

For instance, when the customer says simply dollar, the bank should ascertain whether it is US dollar or Canadian dollar or Australian dollar. Similarly, if it is a bill transaction, it should be ascertained whether it is sight or 30days bill etc. Sometimes usance bills, is calculated from sight or from bill of lading.

If the rate quoted by the customer, he is required to submit an application to the bank along with documentary evidence to support the application, such as sale contract. While preparing the forward contract, following points are to be noted.
Contract must be state the first and last dates of delivery, it is not permissible to state in contract ‘delivery one week’ or ‘delivery one month’ or delivery ‘three months forward’, etc.
When more than one rate for bills with deferent deliveries are mentioned, the contract must state the amount against each rate.
No usance option may be stated in any contract for the purchase of bills. That is the contract should not give option to the customer to tender sight bill or in the alternative 30 days bill etc. it can be either sight bill or a usance bill of a specified usance as mentioned in the contract.

Derivative: options and its use, call option and put option

Options and its use ,call option and put option

An exporter who expects to execute the contract and receive foreign exchange after six months may enter into a put option for six months which entitles him to sell the foreign currency on maturity at an agreed predetermined price (strike price). If on maturity the spot price for the currency is more favorable to the exporter he may choose not to exercise his right of selling under the contract. He can instead sell in the market at the spot rate.
Similarly, an importer may enter into call option entitling him to buy the foreign currency on a future date.
Options contract is useful especially in covering exchange risk under contingent conditions like when the company enters into a bid. The exchange risk will arise only if the contract is awarded and foreign currency exposure arises. Other methods of hedging, such as forward contracts, will prove costly if the contract is not awarded and forward booked has to be cancelled.

Call Option

Call option and Put Option

A contract under which the option buyer has the right to purchase the specific currency is the call option. A contract conferring the right to the buyer to sell the specified currency is the put option. Generally the US Dollar is the base currency and the other currency of the contract is the foreign currency that is being bought or sold. For instance in a dollar/yen call option, the buyer acquires the right buy yen against dollar. Similarly, in a dollar/mark put option, the buyer acquires the right to sell mark against dollar.

The consideration for the seller to offer the right to the buyer is the premium. Thus premium is the fee payable by the buyer of the option to the seller at the time of entering into the contract. The premium paid is not refundable whether the buyer ultimately exercises his right or not.

The exchange rate which the currency are agreed to be exchanged under the option contract is strike price. The market price for option is not a single price. Varying prices maybe quoted each at a different premium. The premium charged would vary according to the market perception about the future exchange rate for the currency.

Types of Instruments:
Three types of options are available. These are:
1. OTC options
2. Exchange Traded Options
3. Options on Futures
Over the counter (OTC) options are available with individual banks. They are tailor made to the requirements of the buyer with regard to the maturity, price and size of the contract. The buyer of the option bears the counterparty risk, i.e. the risk that the seller of the option, the bank may fail to fulfill its obligation under the contract. Normally this type of option is confined to contract of large volumes and between big players. Since this is non-standard variety the premium charged may also be higher.
Exchange traded options are physical currency options traded at an organized exchange. That is similar to the OTC option; the buyer acquires the right to buy or sell the foreign currency but for standard maturities and in standard amounts. Thus it is akin to futures contracts and traded on the exchange. The contract is with the clearing house of the exchange and hence the counterparty risk is minimized.

Options on futures give the buyer of the option the right to buy/sell specific number of futures on specified exchange. Depending upon the strike price prevailing the buyer may exercise his option or forgo it. If the buyer of a call option exercises his option, he will receive a long future contract in the currency. That is, he will become the buyer of the future contract in the exchange. Then the future contract will be subject to other regulations like margin, marking to market, etc.

Execution of Contracts: Whether the buyer will exercise his right under the option contract depends upon the spot rate for the currency prevailing on the due date of the contract. Based on the prevailing spot price, the option contract may be considered
(a) In the money
(b) Out of the money, or
(c) At the money.

In-the-money Options:
An Option is in-the-money when it would be advantageous for the holder of the option to exercise his right. Thus, a call option is in-the-money if on the maturely date the spot price for the currency being bought is higher than the strike price under the option contract. For instance, let us say that strike price under the contract is US$0.65 per mark and in the market spot price for mark is US$0.67. It would be advantageous for the buyer of the option to exercise his option and obtain marks at US$0.65 and thereby save US$0.02 per mark.
An put option, on the other hand, is in-the-market, if at maturity the spot price for the underlying currency is cheaper than the strike price under the contract. The difference between the option price and the spot price at maturity, which is in favor of the buyer is known as the intrinsic value of the option.

Out-of-the-money Options:
An option is out-of-the-money, if it is not advantageous for the buyer to exercise his right. A call option is out-of-the market if the spot price for the currency bought under option is lower than the strike price agreed under the contract. A put option is out-of-the money on the maturity date, where the spot price for the currency sold is higher than the strike price under the option contract. When the option is out of the money, the buyer does not exercise his right and the seller stands to gain by the premium he received under the contract.

At the money Options: An option contract is at the money when the strike price is equal to spot rate for the currency concerned on the due date of the contract. It makes no deference to either of the parties whether the buyer exercises his option or not.

Option


Option

An option confers on the buyer the eligibility to buy or sell a sum of foreign currency at a pre determined rate on a future date, without investing him with an obligation to do so. On the due date, buyer of the option may elect to buy or sell as per his entitlement or he may choose to let it go unused. Either of the decision is binding on the seller, who has no such discretion.
Essentially this type of contract serve the similar purpose as a forward exchange contract., viz, to firm up the future payment/receipt in a foreign currency with regard to exchange rate in terms of the local currency. The difference between the foreword contract and option is that under foreword contract , the customer is expected to deliver/receive the foreign exchange on the due date at the foreword rate irrespective of the spot rate prevailing. Under an option contract , on the due date , the customer can make a reassessment of the situation and seek either execution of the contract or its non- execution as may be advantageous to him.

Features of option contracts:

Parties: There are two parties of this type of contract – the option buyer and the option seller. Option buyer is the holder of the right under the contract to buy or sell one specific currency against another specific currency. Normally it would be the exporter or importer or the corporate treasurer who would be buying the option from the seller.

Option seller also known as the writer, is the one who makes the right available to the buyer. He should deliver or accept delivery of the currency concerned when the right is exercised by the option buyer. Normally the writer of the option will be the bank which provides this instrument to its customer. The seller of the option is always at a disadvantageous position because the buyer will exercise his right only if the prevailing exchange rate is favorable to him. This also means that the rate is unfavorable to the seller.